The African continent is on the verge of a significant political transformation. The Arab Spring, the buildup of the US military presence in a number of countries under the Africom program, China's economic expansion, French interference in the internal affairs of African states, the growing influence of Islamic fundamentalists, internal and external conflicts in many countries of the Black Continent, and maritime piracy... And against this background, the upcoming presidential elections in two dozen countries. Spring 2012 The next presidential elections of the Republic of Mali will be held. This event deserves special interest both from the point of view of political pragmatics and from a purely cognitive point of view.

"THE PHENOMENON OF MALI"

Mali is a kind of Black continent phenomenon. According to some Western experts, this "predominantly Muslim country is a model of democracy for the whole of West Africa"¹. It is widely believed that "Mali stands out from other West African States by the democratic nature of its political system and the degree of development of its civil society"². According to authoritative Russian researchers who know Mali well (A. Vasiliev, E. Korendyasov, etc.), these estimates are overly optimistic. As in other countries of the Black Continent, cronyism, corruption, and nepotism flourish here. Traditional tribal structures, bizarrely integrated into the government, give a peculiar flavor to Malian statehood.

Like most African states, the Republic of Mali has experienced several coups: the establishment of the dictatorship of M. Keita in 1966, the military coup of M. Traore in 1968, attempts at military coups in the second half of the 60s and early 70s, including the coup initiated by the Prime Minister of France. Diakite. Despite the fact that the rulers in uniform remained in the past of Malian history, the military still plays a significant role in the socio-political processes in this country.

* * *

Democracy in Mali has a relatively short history. After the removal of M. Traore from power on March 29, 1991, the Transitional Committee for the Salvation of the People was established in Mali, with the right of a legislative body, and A. T. Toure was elected as its chairman.³ The spring and summer of 1991 was a time of rapid party building: during this time, 46 parties emerged. In August of the same year, a conference was held, which was attended by all the political structures that had been formed by that time. The outcome of its work was the decision to change the political system of Mali.

In January 1992, the results of a national referendum were published in which Malian citizens expressed their views on the constitution of the third Republic and multiparty relations. These political initiatives were supported by 99.7% of Malian citizens. Since then, executive power in the country has been held by the President, who is elected for a five-year term, and the Prime Minister, who is appointed by him. Lawmaking is carried out by the unicameral National Assembly, which is also elected for five years. ⁴

Parliamentary and presidential elections were held in March-April 1992. ADEMA-PASJ became the ruling party, and its leader A. U. Konare became the country's president. In the second round of voting, he received the support of 69% of Malian citizens, and the real process of democratizing the country's political system began.

Despite the complexity of the political process, A. U. Konare managed to win the sympathy of the majority of voters and in 1997 became president again, receiving 85% of the vote in the elections. ADEMA-PASJ once again became the ruling party, winning 128 of the 147 seats in the National Assembly. This political structure, in the eyes of Malians, represented clear progress in the democratization process and was strongly associated with the name of the popular President. ⁵

Thanks to the art of finding compromises with the opposition, A. U. Konare led the country to the next elections in 2002 without much upheaval. In accordance with the Constitution, according to which the President of the Republic cannot be elected to this post more than twice, A. U. Konare resigned.

These elections were marked by the return to the presidency of General A. T. Toure, who was headed by the ruler-

He has also done much for the country's peaceful transition to democratic rule in the early 1990s. After retiring from military service, he appeared as a non-partisan candidate and in his election program proclaimed the establishment of the principles of the rule of law, the involvement of the broadest strata of society in the management of the country, the fight against corruption and embezzlement. He announced that he wanted to be the president of all Malians and set himself the task of "reconciling Malians with politicians and politicians among themselves" ^.6

Toure's desire to become president of all Malians resonated with the voters. Paying tribute to his past achievements and enthusiastically accepting the slogans he proclaimed, 64% of voters supported him in the ⁷ elections. It is worth noting that the transition of power from the Democrat A. U. Konare to the Democrat A. T. Toure took place within the framework of the constitutional procedure without conflicts and shocks, which is quite unusual for ^an African country8.

The next five years of A. T. Toure's presidency were not marked by any serious cataclysms in the country and were years of development of its political system in a democratic paradigm. This helped to increase the popularity of this extraordinary politician in the country and led to his victory in the April 2007 elections. On the eve of the elections, Malian media wrote about the current president: "He brought democratic principles to the state administration and achieved unity of the political class"⁹. The results of the 2007 elections were a clear indication that during the years of his rule, A. T. Toure only strengthened his position on the political Olympus and won the sympathy of an even larger number of his fellow citizens than in the previous elections: 71.2% of voters voted for him.

His opponent, I. B. Keita, received 19.2% of the vote. In 1993, he was appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs, served as Prime Minister from 1994 to 2000, and was elected President of the National Assembly in 2002. This politician, in our opinion, deserves special attention in the context of the upcoming spring 2012 elections - he is registered as a candidate for the post of president of the country.

MB Sangare, president of CDS ¹⁰, received significantly fewer votes: he was supported by only 3% of Malians who took part in the elections. Finally, T. Drama (leader of PARENA), who criticized the president for not paying attention to the opinion of the opposition, received the support of only 2.7% of voters. S. B. Meiga, former Minister of Defense, U. Mariko, Secretary General of ADEMA - PASJ, S. A. Diallo, Professor at the University of Bamako (the first woman in the history of Mali to apply for such a high post), M. Maguiraga, founder of the APP, also applied for the post of President of Mali.

In the 2007 elections, two opposing camps clashed. On the one hand, the opposition, united in the framework of the FDR, which included 16 political parties and associations. Under its banner, 4 candidates (out of 8) participated in the elections: I. B. Keita, T. Drame, S. B. Maiga and M. B. Sangare. Supporters of the opposition Front performed under the slogan "anyone but A. T. Toure".

On the other hand, the candidacy of the incumbent president was supported by the ADP bloc consisting of 33 parties, including ADEMA-PASJ, URD, CNID, MPR. The three candidates were not part of any of the alliances. U. Mariko, a former leader of the student movement, with his SADI party tried to act as a" third force " between the two coalitions. Outside the party lists, M. Maguiraga and S. A. Diallo went to the polls.

In a statement, the European Union noted that the election results " demonstrated how democracy has taken root in Mali... and the maturity shown by the country's public institutions and political forces " ¹¹.

WHO ARE THEY-PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES?

The next elections, if there are no political cataclysms, should be held in April 2012. The current president, who was twice elected to this post, should leave it in accordance with the constitution. As a true democrat, A. T. Toure has repeatedly said that he does not intend to change the Basic Law. By declaring that he would "go to Mopti to cultivate his field" in 2012, A. T. Toure opened the way for candidates from both his own and the opposition camp to participate in the elections. Analysts expect a host of presidential candidates to emerge, given that Malian citizens are gaining an increasing taste for participating in politics.

The most likely candidates have already been determined.

the post of head of state. Among them are venerable politicians who took part in the struggle for the presidency, and public figures who are participating in such elections for the first time.

Ibrahim Boubacar Keita (mentioned above) will again fight for the presidency and, of course, has a serious chance of success.

Diokounda Traore, President of the National Assembly of Mali, former leader of the ruling ADEMA-PASJ party. An intellectual, doctor of Mathematics and former director of the National Engineering School, D. Traore served several times as a minister in various cabinets. According to analysts, it has a high chance of winning.

Modibo Sidibe, former Prime Minister. He has extensive experience in public administration and is close to ADEMA-PASJ. Many see him as the successor of A. T. Toure. A year before the upcoming presidential elections, on March 31, 2011, M. Sidibe, who served as head of the Government of Mali since 2007, resigned. The reasons for this are not given. Accepting his resignation, President A. T. Toure stated:: "My remaining term marks the beginning of a new chapter in the government's history, and I am confident that your team's achievements will be useful." ¹²

Zumana Sako also served as Prime Minister in the past. Due to his tolerant nature and moderate political views, he may become a compromise figure in the upcoming elections. If he gets the support of major parties, he can become the leader of the electoral marofon.

Sumaila Cisse, President of the West African Monetary and Economic Union (UEMOA). He was a candidate of ADEMA-PASJ in the 2002 elections. Founder and spiritual father of URD. A software engineer, he was a member of the Cabinet of Ministers several times.

Sheikh Modibo Diara is a candidate who is increasingly being talked about on the sidelines of the government. Husband of the daughter of ex-President General M. Traore, initiator of the creation and formal leader of the RDM. According to experts, it can be supported by the old guard of UDPM, which today plays a leading role in the MPR. M. Diara relies on young people and refuses to cooperate closely with well-known political structures. It is also trying to enlist the support of the 3 million Malians currently living in Ivory Coast. Its representatives travel around the country and conduct propaganda work with them ¹³.

Moussa Mara, the young mayor of Bamako. Specialist in finance, very punctual in working with the budget. Popular and respected in Bamako. It can count on the support of young people if it acts under the slogans of fighting corruption and embezzlement.

Umar Mariko, Member of Parliament, former leader of the student movement, Chairman of the AYEM Youth Association, currently General Secretary of SADI. Has experience in election campaigns. Among current politicians, he is known for fighting against poverty and protecting the underprivileged.

Muntaga Tall comes from a prominent family of Muslim spiritual leaders. Lawyer, member of the National Assembly. He is known for his fight against the spread of drugs among young people.

Tiebile Drame is the leader and chief ideologist of PARENA. In opposition to the current president, the son-in-law of the previous head of state A. U. Konare. Former member of the Cabinet of Ministers and Member of Parliament, Professor. Currently, he is the UN Representative in Madagascar.

Husseini Amion Gwindo, Member of Parliament, a young historian and geographer with a European education. He stands under the banner of CODEM and enjoys the support of his associates, according to Alassane Aba, the general secretary of the party.¹⁴

Predicting the development of the electoral situation in Mali is a thankless task, and it is completely pointless to make forecasts and play a sweepstake. However, it is possible to note some trends and focus on known factors that will inevitably influence the choice of Malians in the spring of 2012.

WHO WILL BE AHEAD?

Given the popularity of the current President A. T. Toure in his country and the authority outside Mali, it can be assumed that the candidate who receives his political blessing and will be officially announced as his successor will get a head start in the electoral marathon. After all, this will mean not just an expression of sympathy for a person, but something much more - it will indicate certain guarantees of stability in the political process.

The Dauphin announcement will simultaneously be a call to remain true to the democratic paradigm that the Malian people have already twice actively supported. Probably realizing that his patronage can greatly affect the course of the election campaign, and not wanting to interfere with the normal democratic development of the electoral process, A. T. Toure has so far remained silent and, as noted by the Malian media, "did not choose a successor" ¹⁵.

In turn, both the choice of the President and the choice of Malians can seriously affect the development of the political situation and international relations in North and Tropical Africa. And in this context, it makes sense to pay attention to two candidates for the presidency.

There is reason to believe that the United States will use all its political influence and economic power to ensure the victory of Sheikh M. Diara in the 2012 elections. This assumption is supported by many circumstances. First of all, you need to remember that M. Diara held high positions in the American NASA, which indicates not only his high professional status, but also belonging to the technocratic elite of the United States. And this is one of the most influential elites in the post-industrial world. It is also important that for five years he represented Microsoft in Africa. And this social position gives him indisputable advantages in the election race: the powerful financial circles of the United States are interested in seeing such a candidate for the post of president of Mali. Already, the media has reported that Bill Gates invited influential American businessmen and politicians to invest in the economy of Mali. But for this to happen, they need to be confident that M. Diaraj will lead the country in 201216.

At the same time, it should be remembered that we are talking about a country in which almost the entire population is proselytes of Islam. And the recent bombing of Libya by NATO aircraft and the role of the United States in this military operation, which is not entirely correct from the point of view of international law, raise many questions among Muslims in general and among the citizens of Mali in particular. In this context, special attention should be paid to U. Mariko, whose position is the obvious antithesis of the "pro - American" position of M. Diar. U. Mariko takes a very obvious anti-Western position-on August 27, 2011, he was among the organizers of a rally in Bamako in support of the people of Libya and Muammar Gaddafi. The rally was held under the slogans: "Sarkozy, Obama, Cameron, stop killing women and children!", " NATO, get out of Libya!"¹⁷. If we recall the position of the United States in relation to the conflict in Syria and the Pentagon's readiness to bomb this Muslim country, then in this situation, U. Mariko's election slogans may find a response in the hearts of Malians - devout Muslims. (Note also Palestine, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan...)

It is likely that in the 2012 election campaign, the "split" of the electorate may occur in accordance with the antithesis: modernization of the democratic sense under the auspices of the United States, adherence to traditional values with a strong Islamic flavor and preservation of the country's sovereignty.

If we recall the American military presence in Mali and the comprehensive assistance of the Americans to the Malian government in the fight against Islamic extremism, on the one hand, and the increasingly obvious activity of Al-Qaeda and other extremist organizations in the country, the separatism of the northern territories, and the protracted conflict with the Tuaregs, on the other hand, then such a situation can The political polarization of Malian voters in the upcoming elections seems more than likely. (The format of this article does not allow us to dwell on these subjects in any detail. The impact on electoral processes in Mali of such determinants as the foreign policy situation, the American military presence, the military-political project "Africom", Tuareg separatism and tribalist conflicts in the north of the country - all this requires a separate article.)

The current President of Mali, A. T. Toure, has so far skilfully maneuvered between the dangerous reefs of these acute problems. Obviously, he understands the danger

He will also try to avoid an open confrontation during the upcoming elections, which will lead to an extreme political polarization of the citizens of his country. And it is quite likely that he will support a candidate who is more inclined to compromise and does not so clearly verbalize his position both in relation to the military-political alliance with NATO and in relation to Islamic fundamentalists. Perhaps it will be one of the Malian political heavyweights who have already declared themselves as statesmen who are alien to extremes. Of course, the choice of Malians will largely depend on one or another configuration of alliances and alliances of the most influential political structures in the country. And such electoral alliances, in turn, will largely depend on the opinion of the current president.

It is noteworthy that quite recently, in July 2010, a large group of ministers of the current cabinet formed a new party-PDES, acting on behalf of A. T. Toure, although the president himself refuses to join it. But there were no refutations from the latter, which gives reason to think that he has something to do with its creation. It is known, in particular, that his wife - T. L. Traore-is considered the godmother of the new party ¹⁸. Currently, this political structure seeks to strengthen itself by luring deputies from other opposition parties.¹⁹

On the other hand, almost at the same time, on January 29, 2011, National Councilor A. Savadogo and a number of his supporters, as well as activists of the patriotic movement - Municipal Councilor B. Ndiaye and his associates went over to the URD banner. The ceremony of accepting new members was held in the presence of members of the National bureau of the party and its President Yu. Toure, who said that his party does not distinguish between old and new supporters ²⁰.

The democratic process in Mali did not really begin until 1991.Five years later, in 1996, there were already 60 political "parties" in the country, and by 2004 their number had reached 94. And new political structures continue to appear on the political scene, increasing the fragmentation of the political class. At the same time, as Malian experts note, "unlike some other African countries, these parties are no longer created on an ethnic or regional basis. But they are often created in the pursuit of money and positions. At the same time, among almost a hundred parties, only five (ADEMA, URD, RPM, CNID, MPR) can be considered as truly influential: the rest are political microstructures that seek alliances with major parties to form electoral coalitions every time on the eve of elections."²¹

Virtually all major political structures in Mali have experienced one or more splits for various reasons in their short history (less than 15 years). More than 15 parties, including the largest and most influential political structures in Mali, are the product of crises in the "mother" organizations. All these splits - painful, if not suicidal-were very rarely caused by ideological motives. Much more often we are talking about unsatisfied ambitions, a struggle for control of the apparatus, or even purely material aspirations. These divisions add to the fragmentation of the political class.

How does one party differ from another today? The URD's ruling elite consists of former ADEMA leaders. The URD political program is no different from the ADEMA program. Both parties are ideologically close and develop partnerships with the same forces both within the country and in the international arena. Finally, both parties use the same tactics during elections.²²

The relatively young political system of Mali is experiencing, as it seems to me, the "childhood disease" of excessive multiparty membership. Parties arise, split up, and disappear from the political scene, party leaders "wander" from one party to another, while their political views remain unchanged, and the programs of political structures born on the eve of elections differ little from the "mother"ones. As for their leaders, in most cases "dissidents" are concerned only with their own electoral prospects. According to Malian experts, such" nomadism " by political activists, both individually and collectively, "undermines the credibility of the political class as a whole"^.23

* * *

Civil society in Mali is still in its infancy, and "democracy in Malian"is painted in a very peculiar tone of political gambling. Emerging markets and IP-

These dwarf parties create the illusion of a turbulent political life and are often designed not to represent the interests of certain socio-professional groups, but to successfully promote their leaders to the top of the political Olympus. In this context, the political process can be interpreted as "the policy of individuals"... But, for all that, this African country was able to escape from the military dictatorship and avoid large-scale tribalist conflicts. This is largely due to the fact that the notorious "ethnicity" was expelled from the political system, and political structures, as a rule, are no longer built on the dangerous foundation of a tribalist clientele.

Democratically elected and socially responsible presidents have been able to provide their fellow citizens with a relatively stable existence. There is reason to hope that the democratic paradigm will prevail in the country's political life even after the 2012 elections. The growing activity of Al-Qaeda in the Sahel, the extremism of Islamist groups, the separatism of the Tuareg in northern Mali, the presence of the US military on its territory and such a clear pragmatic interest of American politicians in the upcoming elections-all this can The situation in Mali could lead to disastrous consequences. Finally, the position of the army, which traditionally plays an important role in the socio-political processes in Mali, will have a significant, if not decisive, impact on the outcome of the upcoming elections.

The author expresses his gratitude to E. N. Korendyasov, Ph. D. in Historical Sciences, whose valuable advice helped in writing this article.

POLITICAL PARTIES AND SOCIAL MOVEMENTS IN MALI MENTIONED IN THE ARTICLE

APP (Alliance Populaire Progressiste) - People's Party of progressives.

ADP (Alliance pour la democratie et le progres) - Alliance for Democracy and Progress.

ADEMA-PASJ (Alliance pour la democratie au Mali-Parti africain pour la solidarite et la justice) is an African party for Solidarity and Justice.

AEEM (Association des Eleves et Etudiants du Mali) - Associations of students and students of Mali.

CNID (Congres nationale d'initiative democratique) - The National Congress of the Democratic Initiative.

CODEM (Convergence pour le developpement du Mali) - Convergence for the development of Mali.

CARE (Convergence africaine pour le renouveau) - African unity for renewal.

CDS (Convention sociale democrat) - Social Democratic Convention.

FDR (Front pour la democratie et la repubiique) - Front for Democracy and the Republic.

MPR (Mouvement patriotique pour le renouveau) - Patriotic Movement for Renewal.

PARENA (Parti pour la renaissance nationale) - The Party for National Revival.

PDES (Parti pour le develop-pement economique et social) is a Party for Economic and Social development.

RPM (Rassemblement pour le Mali) - Association for Mali.

URD (Union pour la Repubiique et la democratie) - Union for the Republic and Democracy.

UDD (Union pour la democratie et le developpement) - Union for Democracy and Development.

UDPM (Union democratique du peuple malien) is the Democratic Union of the Malian People.

US-RDA (Union soudanaise-Rassemblement democratique africain) - The Sudanese Union - African Democratic Association.

^{Rivera J. -F.} 1 Elections au Mali: lecon democratique - http://translate.google.ru/translate?hl=ru&langpair=frru&u=http:/Avw'w.cafebabel.fr/article/2 0731/elections-au-mali-lecon-democrati-que.html

² See for details: Bingen R. J., Staatz J. M., Robinson D. Democracy and Development in Mali. The Michigan State University Press, 2000.

³ Le "model" malien - http://www.clio.fr/CHRONOLOGIE/chronologiemalile_modele_malien.asp

⁴ Ibidem.

⁵ Ibid.

^{Vitukhina G. O., Ontschko V. G.} 6 The Republic of Mali. Handbook, Moscow, 2005, p. 85.

⁷ Elections in Mali // African elections database - http://africanelections.tripod.com/ml.html

^{Prokopenko L.} 8. - http://encyclopaedia.biga.ru/enc/country/MALI.html

⁹ Les candidats a l'eTection presidentielle 2007 - http://www.clicmali.org/

¹⁰ Mamadou Blaise SANGARE President de la CDS Mogotiguiya -http://www.maliweb.net/category.php?NID-51897&from=cat&page=2

^{Rivera J. -F.} 11 Op. cit.

¹² Prime Minister of Mali resigns - http://www.rian.ru/world/20110331/359476574.html

^{Keita D.B.} 13 Cheick Modibo Diarra est-il le candidat de la jeunesse? -http://www.bamanet.net/index.php/actualite/nouvel-horizon/7498-

presidentielles-2012-au-mali-cheick-modibo-diarra-est-il-le-candidat-de-la-jeunesse-.html

¹⁴ De nouveaux partis politiques en vue de la presidentielle 2012 -http://www.afrique-express.com/afrique/mali/mali-partis-politiques.html

¹⁵ Presidentielle: Ibrahim Boubacar Keita en lice pour 2012? -http://www.jeuneafrique.eom/Article/ARTJAWEB20100909154434/#ixzzlXRYYWUap

^{Keita D.B.} 16 Cheick Modibo Diarra...

¹⁷ Oumar Mariko lors du meeting populaire de soutien a la Libye: "La position du gouvernement malien est courageuse..." - http://www.part-isadi.net

¹⁸ De nouveaux partis politiques...

¹⁹ Presidentielle: Ibrahim Boubacar Keita...

^{Fomba Z.} 20 Des dissidents MPR et RPM a l'URD - http://www.bamanet.net/index.php/actualite/autres-presses/13044-transhumance-politique-en- cvi-des-dissidents-mpr-et-rpm-a-lurd.html

^{Camara B.} 21 Le processus democratique...

^I.S. 22 Premieres tendances des communales dans le district de Bamako : L'ADEMA et l'URD se renforcent. le RPM en recul, le PARENA porte disparu - http://guintanbamako.radio.org.ml/article.php37id_article-60mardi28avril2009par

^{Maiga I.} 23 L'Adema. I'Urd. le Rpm et les autres: Une erreur strategique creera-t-elle des surprises en 2012? - http://www.maliweb.net/category. php?NID=52426

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