Prognoses for Bitcoin in 2026 are divided: participants in forecasting markets assess the chances of returning to $100,000 as extremely low, while some analysts maintain optimistic long-term goals. Let's consider the current situation, key scenarios, and key factors that will determine the movement of the main cryptocurrency. Current market situation As of the beginning of July 2026, Bitcoin is trading in the range of $58,000 – $63,000, which is about 50% below the historical maximum of approximately $126,000 reached in October 2025. Since the beginning of the year, the cryptocurrency has lost about 27–30% of its value. The main reason for the decline was the mass withdrawal of funds from Bitcoin ETFs and the redistribution of capital into stocks of companies related to artificial intelligence. Forecasting markets: low probability Participants in decentralized forecasting platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi assess the chances of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of 2026 at 10–17%. The probability of a short-term increase to $75,000 is estimated at only 6%, and to $100,000 — about 1%. At the same time, the markets imply a 57% probability of Bitcoin falling below $50,000 by the end of the year. Such quotes reflect the dominance of pessimistic sentiment among traders. Analyst forecasts: cautious to ambitious Opinions among experts are divided. Most crypto funds do not expect the price to exceed $100,000 by the end of 2026. For example, Citi lowered its forecast from $143,000 to $82,000, citing outflow from ETFs and weak demand. At the same time, Standard Chartered maintains its target of $100,000, naming key resistances at levels of $75,000 and $85,000. 21Shares predicts a range of $100,000 – $110,000 by the end of the year. The most ambitious forecast belongs to Bernstein, which maintains its target of $150,000 despite the 54% correction from the maximum. Bernstein analysts note that institutional capital inflows in 2026 have already reached $10 billion, ... Read more