In August 2026, the Pentagon began developing a new nuclear strategy that could become the most significant change in American nuclear policy since the end of the Cold War. The initiative, supervised by Deputy Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby, proposes a review of the traditional doctrine that relied on massive strategic retaliation.
The key innovation is the emphasis on tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) of short range and low yield, intended for use in regional conflicts with Russia or China. Colby's argument: the current strategy is \"unrealistic\" for limited conflicts, as it relies solely on the threat of applying strategic systems of long range. Tactical weapons, in his view, will provide the president with \"realistic and reliable options,\" expanding the space for decision-making and enhancing deterrence effectiveness.
The document, according to NBC News, \"leaves no option off the table\" for the head of state and should be presented at a closed meeting of the Strategic Command of the U.S. military.
The United States already has the necessary means to implement such a scenario. As Daryl Kimball (executive director of the Arms Control Association, ACA) notes, the Pentagon has 1800 deployable warheads, including strategic and tactical carriers, as well as at least 150 tactical bombs of at least two types — the gravity bomb B61-12 and the low-yield warhead W76-2 for Trident-2 missiles.
An important addition will be the introduction of a new sea-based cruise missile with a nuclear payload (SLCM-N) into the arsenal of the U.S. Navy, expected by 2030. Chinese military expert Zhang Junsheng notes that Washington may equip hypersonic ground-based missiles with nuclear warheads.
According to Kimball's assessment, in the absence of treaty restrictions, the United States may increase the number of deployed strategic warheads by several hundred, perhaps even a thousand or more, in the coming years — for example, by reloading warheads on submarines or additional outfitting of Minuteman III ICBMs.
The main argument of the critics is uncontrolled escalation. Kimball emphasizes: \"After the use of tactical nuclear weapons in a conflict against another state possessing nuclear weapons, there is no guarantee that this will remain a limited incident of small scale.\" Any use of WMD inevitably leads to escalation and a global thermonuclear war.
A U.S. congressional representative familiar with the project told NBC: \"It is hard to imagine an approach that is more contrary to the declared position of President Trump's 'make our nuclear deterrent great again'.\" According to Charter97, the interlocutor noted that Trump would like to have more options in the field of nuclear deterrence, not fewer.
The strategy is being developed against the backdrop of the expiration of the New START Treaty (February 5, 2026) — the last legally binding agreement between Russia and the United States, limiting strategic arsenals. Russia suspended its participation in the treaty as early as 2023 and on February 4, 2026, declared that it no longer considers itself bound by its obligations.
Kimball called several reasons why the Trump administration did not respond to Putin's proposal in September 2025 to mutual compliance with New START limits in an interview with the PIR Center:
China is designated as threat number one in the new strategy. The Trump administration insists on including China in trilateral negotiations, but critics point out fundamental inequality: according to SIPRI, the United States and Russia account for nearly 90% of all nuclear warheads. China does not have tactical nuclear weapons and adheres to the policy of \"no first use.\"
In spite of Trump's contradictory statements (\"the United States already has too much nuclear weapons, no need to create new ones\"), budget requests for the 2026 fiscal year indicate a systemic modernization. Requests for nuclear programs at the Department of Defense and the Department of Energy have increased by approximately 26% compared to the current year. The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) received \"historical\" $30 billion — a rise of 24% compared to the Biden period. At the same time, funding for non-proliferation programs is reduced by 5%.
Among the key projects are: replacing the Minuteman III ICBM with Sentinel, replacing the Ohio-class SSBNs with Columbia, developing the B-21 Raider bomber and high-precision B61-12 bombs.
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