The presidential and parliamentary elections held in the Federal Republic of Nigeria in April 2007 were an event that attracted the attention of the African and international community.

On April 21, 60.5 million citizens of the republic who have the right to vote were to elect deputies of the upper and lower chambers of the National Assembly( Parliament), as well as a new head of state from three proposed candidates. These presidential elections were supposed to be the first truly democratic presidential elections in a country where in recent decades, except for the rise to power of former General Olusegun Obasanjo, who was elected to the top leadership post in 1999, the change of presidents was usually carried out through military coups.

Nigeria is one of the largest and most populous countries in Africa. It is no coincidence that it is called the" giant " of the African continent. Indeed, from the point of view of neighboring States, it is a colossus of the region: it is much larger in size than others, its economy can only be compared to South Africa in sub-Saharan Africa, and it also has military advantages.

The basis of the Nigerian economy is the oil industry: oil reserves - 35 billion rubles. barrels ¹. Its exports give Nigeria, an OPEC member, about 95% of foreign exchange earnings. The country is rich in natural gas, coal, and other minerals (tin, iron ore, columbite, gold, zinc, limestone, etc.).

At the same time, Nigeria is among the 25 poorest countries in the world (152nd place in 2003, between the Gambia-151st place and Djibouti-153rd place).². Between 1970 and 1990, the country earned $ 200 billion from oil sales, but this did little to increase the welfare of the people.

"RECORDS" OF THE MILITARY AUTHORITIES

For almost 30 years (intermittently), military regimes have been in power in Nigeria. In a speech at the presidential inauguration ceremony, Olusegun Obasanjo stated:: "Instead of the progress and development that we should have expected from those who governed us, ... we have only experienced a constant deterioration in the quality of governance on the part of the upper echelons of power, leading to instability and the weakening of all State institutions."³. Although the military came to power under the slogans of fighting corruption, the latter flourished even more luxuriantly under their regimes.

Only three times in the post-colonial history of the country (up to 1999) there were periods of civil government: 1960-1966 (Prime Minister T. Baleva), 1979-1983 (President Sh. Shagari) and August-November 1993 (Head of the Provisional National Government E. Shonekan).

On average, each military regime, from 1966 to 1998, was in power for just over three years. And the governments of Generals A. J. Agiyya-Ironsi, M. R. Muhammad and A. Abubakar lasted even less -each for less than a year. With the exception of General Obasanjo, who peacefully handed over power in 1979, all other regimes were forcibly overthrown. The last leader of the military regime, Sunny Abacha (1993-1998), the toughest dictator who ruthlessly cracked down on dissidents and left a bad memory for Nigerians, died in his office.

According to the index of post-colonial political stability, Nigeria was in one of the last places even in Africa, which holds a sad record for political turmoil among the countries of the world.

Fierce competition in the struggle for power in Nigeria led to a constant violation of the constitutional and human rights of citizens, and generated corruption. Democratic institutions such as the Parliament and the court were completely destroyed during the long period of military regimes. In particular, after coming to power, S. Abacha dissolved the Parliament, the Provisional National Government, and banned the activities of political parties, election commissions, and local legislative and executive bodies. Instead, secret police and secret military tribunals were created. This dictator broke all records in robbing his own people. According to Obasanjo's estimates, between $ 4 billion and $ 5 billion were stolen from the state treasury. ⁴

During the Sunny Abacha regime, Nigeria was at the top of the list of countries with the most corrupt regimes. The famous Nigerian writer, Nobel Prize winner W. Shoinka figuratively on-

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he called him "the tyrant of the Stone Age." ⁵

Louis Sabib, Vice President of the World Bank, said at a press conference after a visit to Nigeria in 1998: "Nigeria has great potential to become an economic giant in Africa, given its size, human talent, rich resources and productivity. The country can also become a locomotive that can move the economy of West Africa forward. And so far, this has not been achieved due to poor management, poor governance, corruption and political instability. " ⁶

TOWARDS DEMOCRACY: CHALLENGES AND EARLY SUCCESSES

On May 29, 1999, Nigeria officially became a democratic country when, after nearly 16 years of continuous military rule, general elections were held to elect Olusegun Obasanjo as Head of State. At the same time, the new Constitution of the Federal Republic came into force.

The new administration has declared its goal to improve all sectors of the national economy and social life, eliminate the heavy legacy of military regimes, and establish a solid democracy.

After becoming President, Obasanjo declared economic transformation and the fight against corruption to be his main tasks. The Government has set a goal of increasing economic growth to 10% per year by 2010 and reducing inflation, and ultimately turning Nigeria into a major industrial country that will achieve continuous economic growth and development, improving the quality of life for all Nigerians.

However, the new government faced serious problems. One of the main obstacles to transformation was the federal structure of the country, in which the governors of individual states, feeling themselves the absolute masters of their territories, did not want to take into account the center. The budgets of some of Nigeria's oil-producing states now reach $ 1 billion a year, and governors wield enormous influence. The problems caused by the complexity of the ethnic and religious composition of the country's population were also a hindrance.

The population of Nigeria consists of more than 250 ethnic groups, each of which retains its own traditions, language and culture. 80% of the population consists of 10 groups that are numerically predominant in individual states: Hausa, Fulbe, Kanuri and Tiv in the northern states; ibo, or Igbo, Ibibio, Efik in the eastern states; Yoruba in the western states. Hausa, Yoruba and Ibo are collectively about 60% Nigerians. In recent years, the country's press has been flooded with reports of violent actions carried out by armed groups formed on ethnic grounds. In Nigeria, there are groups such as the Odua People's Congress (ODC), the Arewa People's Congress (ARC), the Igbo People's Congress (IPC), the Egbezu African Boys (EVA), the Bakassi Boys (BB), the Biafran Revival Movement (MASSOB), the Niger Delta Volunteer Units (NDPVF) and others^..

The source of contradictions is also the religious factor. Northern Nigerians are mostly Muslim (except for Tiv), while southern Nigerians are mostly Christian. Christianity is practiced by 40% of Nigerians; 50% are Muslims. The position of the Catholic Church is strongest among the population of the eastern part of the country, and the Methodist and Anglican churches - in the west. There are also a number of local Christian African churches.

Ethnic and religious contradictions have become a serious obstacle to the unity of the country and national progress. This factor is actively used by supporters of the dismemberment of Nigeria, being a constant source of conflict. Despite the secular nature of the modern Nigerian state, religion has a serious impact on the situation in the country. This is evidenced by such facts as the introduction of sharia law by the governors of 12 of the 19 northern states, religious pogroms in northern cities of Nigeria, etc.

At the same time, the North and South of the country have always been different socio-political regions, which also gave rise to conflicts. The northerners feared the dominance of the more developed southern regions, and the southerners feared the hegemony of the larger population of the North.

Under Obasanjo, political parties were allowed to operate. However, the introduction of a multiparty system did not significantly change the nature and role of the ruling elite. Having come to power on the wave of democratization, the Obasanjo regime got along with an undeveloped economy.-

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the lack of civil society, the narrowness of the social base, as well as such phenomena as the growth of social tension, corruption, which was particularly pronounced in the process of preparing for the 2007 elections and during the elections themselves.

At the same time, O. Obasanjo's years in power were marked by certain successes in the economy. The president was largely helped by the rise in oil prices, whose exports contributed to the inflow of foreign exchange earnings and the growth of the economy as a whole, which allowed him to talk about the success of his course. In October 2006, the President presented the National Assembly with a federal budget of $ 18.2 billion, which was 20% higher than the 2006 budget. ⁸

The president's large-scale fight against corruption also brought him popularity among the people. However, critics claimed that the victims of the campaign against bribes and embezzlement were opposition members and representatives of ethnic clans other than the president, while none of the high-ranking members of the pro-presidential People's Democratic Party (PDP) was accused of corruption. And the results of this struggle were not very noticeable.

The head of the country's Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, said that Nigeria's politicians have stolen $ 400 billion from oil revenues (about 80% of all the country's revenues from oil production). As the Independent newspaper reported in August 2006, the Commission's report was designed to prevent corrupt officials from participating in the 2007 elections. The Nigerian Anti-Corruption Agency published the names of former and current politicians and officials who laundered public funds. In its 2006 report, Transparency International ranked Nigeria as one of the most corrupt countries in the world.⁹

Obasanjo, a former military man, has been quite adept at fighting the separatism that is inevitable in multi-ethnic and multi-religious Nigeria in recent years, although the results here have left much to be desired.

The President's prestige has certainly been greatly enhanced by his very active position both on the African continent and in the international arena in general, and, in particular, by the contribution that Nigeria and Obasanjo personally made to the creation of the African Union and the development of the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD) program, and to the settlement of African conflicts. conflicts and the activities of the UN and African Union peacekeeping forces.

In general, the years of Olusegun Obasanjo's rule were, if not successful, then at least stable.

PRE-ELECTION BATTLES

Recently, the Nigerian leader himself has increasingly complained that it will take more than one year to complete the transformations he has begun. Given that Obasanjo's second and last constitutional term ended in May 2007, politicians loyal to the president began talking about the possibility of changing the constitution to allow the head of state to run for a third term. The president himself never tired of emphasizing his commitment to democracy and the foundations of the constitution.

In April 2007, deputies from the NDP-the party in power-took the initiative. They proposed an amendment giving the Nigerian leader the right to another re-election. However, this amendment did not pass. The president himself preferred to remain the guarantor of the constitution and decided not to change it. The controversial bill was also opposed by Nigerian Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who was considered Obasanjo's right-hand man and an exponent of his will.

That's when the talk of a successor began.

By tacit agreement of the Nigerian elites, a representative of the Muslim North of the country (President Obasanjo is a Christian and a native of the South) was to become president. Various political movements supported the election of a representative of the North as president, and not only in the northern regions, noting that it would be fair to see a Northerner in this post after the representative of the South, O. Obasanjo, led the country for 8 years.

However, some organizations attributed their interest in electing a "northern" president to the fact that under such leaders, central government policies were always favorable to the North, while "southern" presidents had little concern for the development of this resource-rich region. In this sense, the statement of the Niger Delta Youth Coalition is typical: "There are many undiscovered mineral resources in the north, and we believe that the northern president will show interest in developing these resources, and the revenues from the exploration will benefit not only the Niger Delta, but also the national economy as a whole."¹⁰

Nigerian political analysts and media outlets have suggested that two of Obasanjo's associates, Vice President Atiku Abubakar and General Ibrahim Babangida, have the best chance of succeeding Obasanjo. They both counted on the support of the incumbent president and the status of candidates from the ruling party, which could guarantee them victory in the elections.

Vice President Atiku Abubakar has long been considered the most likely presidential candidate. However, open opposition to the party's intentions

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the power to change the constitution put an end to his presidential ambitions. At the same time, Abubakar, 60, openly challenged Obasanjo: realizing that there was no hope of becoming an official successor, he decided to run as a candidate from the opposition Action Congress party. In response, the authorities accused Abubakar, who began his career in customs and then successfully managed oil and media companies, of corruption and banned him from the NDP for three months.

A similar story happened with Ibrahim Babangida, a politician with a reputation for being a tough enforcer, and in the past (from 1985 to 1993) the head of the military regime. The former Nigerian dictator announced that he was withdrawing his candidacy and would not run for president in the April 2007 elections, citing opposition from Olusegun Obasanjo.

If Babangida accepted that he would not be included in the lists of presidential candidates, then Abubakar, who already saw himself as head of state, continued to fight. And on December 10, 2006, the Nigerian Court of Appeal declared illegal the decision to temporarily expel the Vice-President from the NDP party. However, Abubakar was still unable to stand as a candidate for the presidency: the deadline for submitting an application expired three days before the acquittal of the court. However, the Supreme Court declared the decision of the election commission illegal, and just on the eve of the election, the name of the vice-president was still included in the voting lists.

Another opposition candidate was the former leader of the military government of Nigeria (1984-1985), Mohammed Buhari, who represented the All-Nigeria People's Party.

With the departure of two seemingly obvious contenders for the presidency, the ruling party had to find a new successor. No one doubted, however, that President Obasanjo himself would make the choice.

WHO BECAME THE SUCCESSOR?

In January 2007, on the eve of voting on this issue at the congress of the ruling PDP, the presidential administration, which had hitherto remained silent, officially supported the candidacy of 56-year-old Muslim Umaru Yar-Adua, governor of Katsin, one of the northern, Muslim states. Following this, the governors of eight states spoke out in his favor at once.

Until recently, all that was known about the Governor of Katsina, whose borders he practically did not leave during the seven years of his governorship, was that he was a former school chemistry teacher and the younger brother of General Shehu Moussa Yar-Adua, who in 1976-1979 was the deputy of Obasanjo, then the military ruler of Nigeria.¹¹

The support of the president helped Umar Yar-Adua gain an overwhelming majority of votes - three-quarters of the almost 4 thousand NDP members who took part in the vote expressed their support. "I want to congratulate my brother, who will be the best successor to me," Olusegun Obasanjo said at the party's congress on ¹² May.

The opposition claimed that Umaru Yar-Adua would be just a puppet of Obasanjo. None of the 50 officially registered parties in Nigeria can boast such a powerful administrative resource as the NDP, which controls 28 of the country's 36 states and has a majority of seats in parliament.

By electing a successor, party members simultaneously guaranteed that the president would retain control of the country after his resignation. The NDP charter included a provision appointing O. Obasanjo as the "conscience of the party" after he left the position of head of state. This title gives the former president the right to control the party budget, appoint and dismiss members of the ruling party at his discretion.

HOW WERE THE ELECTIONS HELD

Until February 7, all eligible voters had to register at the polling stations and receive a corresponding document. Since many Nigerians were skeptical about the upcoming elections, the Government used various means to force citizens to register. So, the governor of one of the states threatened to expel students from an educational institution, and not pay salaries to government employees if they do not register. And the Catholic bishop said that he will not allow believers who are not registered at the polling stations to receive communion. "Anyone who does not receive a card will automatically disconnect himself from the community, from the church and from the nation," the diocesan bulletin ¹³ said.

A kind of" touchstone " was the local elections held on April 14 - to the parliaments of Nigerian states. As expected, the ruling People's Democratic Party won in 28 of the 36 states, but the opposition Action Congress won in the country's largest city, Lagos, which has the status of a separate state.

These elections were marred by clashes and were accompanied by accusations that the authorities rigged their results. Opposition politicians accused the pro-presidential party of recruiting young people for armed attacks on polling stations, intimidating voters and members of the electorate.-

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election commissions and interference in the vote counting process. As a result of the clashes, according to the police, 21 people were killed (according to human rights organizations, the death toll is much higher).¹⁴.

On the eve of the presidential election, the situation in Nigeria has become tense. Now and then there were clashes between supporters of opposing presidential candidates; there were dead and wounded. Due to the tense situation in the country, traders drew attention to a possible reduction in oil supplies from Nigeria, which indicates the importance of the outcome of the elections in the state - one of the leading oil exporters.¹⁵ The security forces were put on high alert. The President promised to "severely suppress any attempts to disrupt the vote." ¹⁶

Amnesty International issued a statement expressing concern about the high level of violence that has accompanied the electoral process in Nigeria. At the same time, the organization cited documents that showed that a similar situation occurred during the elections in Nigeria in 1999 and 2003, when there were clashes between armed groups that supported a particular candidate, and political assassinations. However, Amnesty International stated that it already has numerous reports of violence related to the 2007 elections, including attempted assassinations of some candidates.¹⁷

For their part, representatives of the country's Christian communities expressed concern. The fact that Yar-Adua is a Muslim, a native of the North, where Christians have been persecuted more than once, gave rise to judgments about the possibility of an aggravation of the religious conflict. The northern part of the country-12 states-lived according to its own laws: according to Sharia law, according to which the local Christians had to live. Meanwhile, Christians were being killed and churches burned in these states. Under a Muslim president, some Christians believe, they will suffer even more.¹⁸

On the eve of polling day, the Nigerian opposition repeatedly claimed numerous violations during the election campaign and expressed concerns that the election results could be rigged in favor of the candidate from the ruling People's Democratic Party, Umaru Yar Adua, who received active support from President O. Obasanjo during the election race.

The elections held on April 21 were rather acute. In addition to categorical statements by the Nigerian opposition, which accused the authorities of undemocratic electoral methods and even threatened to boycott the elections, international observers noted numerous violations and acts of violence that increased on the eve of voting day. So, a few hours before the opening of polling stations in the capital Abuja, an attempted terrorist attack was prevented. Unknown criminals sent an uncontrolled tanker truck with oil, on which gas cylinders were fixed, to the building of the Central Election Commission. Law enforcement officers managed to stop the deadly car with the help of special barriers and prevent the explosion ¹⁹.

On Saturday, April 21, 120 thousand polling stations were supposed to open at 10 am, but in many states they did not start working by noon. Representatives of the electoral commission justified themselves by saying that the ballots were printed abroad and they did not have time to deliver them to their places in time. In some places, the polling stations did not open at all. In Kano, armed men broke into one of the polling stations and stole ballot boxes, while in another they shot seven policemen guarding the ballot boxes. Foreign observers reported extremely low voter turnout. Many Nigerians have chosen to stay at home for fear of violence. The Government has banned rallies and even imposed curfews in some states. However, in Daura, police shot at a peaceful demonstration against vote rigging, and dozens of people were killed in clashes between supporters of different candidates.²⁰

According to the results of the elections, Umar Yar-Adua won. Simultaneously with the presidential elections, the country's parliamentary elections were also held. They were won by the ruling People's Democratic Party.

Many people both inside and outside Nigeria have expressed disagreement with the election results. The opposition, led by the main rival of the winning candidate, Mohammed Buhari, disputed the results of the vote, and Atiku Abubakar called the election a "national tragedy"²¹. His party, the Congress of Action, accused the electoral Commission of deliberately excluding its candidates from the voting lists.²² Although the Central Election Commission insisted that the elections could be considered democratic and open, opposition parties refused to recognize their results and called on parliament to impeach Obasanjo, considering him guilty of disrupting the popular vote.

International observers who conducted the monitoring argued that the election results should be annulled and the vote should be held anew,

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considering the number of violations that accompanied it ²³. According to them, among the most serious violations are the lack of ballots, false voting forms, and a surge in violence on election day, which led to extremely low voter turnout.

Observers noted that many citizens were still unable to express their opinion in the elections due to the lack of ballots and electoral lists. In addition, they were prevented by the fact that many polling stations opened many hours late or did not open at all. ²⁴ The head of the European observer mission, Max Vandenberg, argued in Abuja that the elections did not meet the hopes and expectations of the people. He also expressed the view that "the gubernatorial and presidential elections in Nigeria are still very far from the international and regional standards that a truly democratic election should meet." ²⁵ The current President O. Obasanjo agreed that the past elections are far from perfect, but urged his fellow citizens not to lose faith in democracy.

FIRST STEPS OF THE NEW PRESIDENT

Already in May, a month after the election, analysts began to express cautious optimism about the situation in the country, which was based on the first steps of the new president.

During his short term in power, Umaru Yar-Adua managed to make his first official visit to 9 African countries: Togo, Benin, Niger, Senegal, South Africa, Algeria, Libya, Egypt and Cameroon. In addition to the importance of relations with the leading countries of the north and south of the continent for Nigeria, this visit demonstrated the President's intention to follow the traditional course of Nigerian rulers for close cooperation with the countries of the "first circle" - neighboring states of West Africa. At the same time, this visit was evidence of the new president's desire for a "change of orientation" in foreign policy.

While Obasanjo paid special attention to cooperation with Western countries, Yar-Adua seems determined to focus on regional cooperation, as well as South-South cooperation, as evidenced by his statement that his next visit will be to China.

The President's speech during the inauguration on May 29, 2007, which was attended by representatives of many African and non-African countries, including the Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for relations with African leaders, Director of the Institute of Africa, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences A.M. Vasiliev, also inspires optimism.

U. Yar-Adua called for an immediate end to the bloodshed in the southern part of the country, where major oil production is underway. At the same time, representatives of the opposition "Movement for the Liberation of the Niger Delta"²⁶ said that they were ready to consider the proposals of the new president. Yar-Adua also expressed confidence that his program will save Nigerians from major problems and make the country's economy one of the fastest growing in the world by 2020.

* * *

Summing up the above, it should be recognized that although the 2007 elections were characterized by a number of negative aspects, the democratic procedure for changing power in such a complex ethnic and religious country, which has already managed to get used to violent and bloody military coups, cannot but inspire hopes for changes for the better in the fate of Nigerians. Having managed to cope with the chaos that accompanied the transition of power from one ruler to another, Nigeria proved firsthand to other African countries that civilian rule and respect for democratic norms can help find a way out of the impasse of political instability and internecine strife.

This is supported, at first glance, by a paradoxical fact published in July 2007 by the Nigerian News Agency (NAN) and picked up by the media: in Nigeria, after the general elections, prices for machetes, a popular weapon of political thugs, halved, which was the result of a drop in demand for them from criminal elements who provoked unrest in the country. ²⁷.

In general, despite the irregularities in the course of the elections, the Nigerian authorities call them a landmark event for the country, which is hard to disagree with.

¹ CIA - The World Factbook - Nigeria. Wash., 2003.

² Ibidem.

^{Bolshov I. G.} 3 Nigeria: Crisis in the economy. Scientific Notes of the Institute of Africa of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Issue 21, Moscow, 2000, p. 8.

⁴ Washington Post. October 30, 1999.

⁵ Countries of Africa 2002 (first edition). Moscow, Institute of Africa of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2002, p. 475.

⁶ Guardian. Lagos, September 21, 1998.

⁷ Asia and Africa today. 2005, No. 9, p. 32.

⁸ Africa Confidential. November 3, 2006.

⁹ ВВС Russian.com 16.04/2007 -http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/russian/international/newsid6558000/6558515.stm

¹⁰ Niger Delta Youth Coalition (DDYC). Port Harcourt, River State. Punch Newspaper. May 26, 2006.

¹¹ Presidential elections are being held in Nigeria-Vzglyad. Business newspaper. 21.04.2007. ¹² Runet.ru. - 16.01.2007

¹³ AIR FORCE Russian.com - 16.04.2007.

¹⁴ The presidential election in Nigeria is a catalyst for rising oil prices. Realty.RosInvest.com - 16 .04.2007.

¹⁵ Presidential elections are being held in Nigeria...

¹⁶ Nigerian presidential election: It will be difficult for the successor - http://www.newafrica.ru/digest/o612/Nigeria.htm

¹⁷ The presidential election in Nigeria may have negative consequences for Christians. Christian Today, 12.04. 2007. -http://ru.cristiantoday.com/article/2527.htm

¹⁸ Details. Based on the materials of RIA Novosti, 21.04.2007 - http://www.podrobnosti.ua/power/elections/2007/04/21417466.html

¹⁹ News of the world. 23.04.2007 г. -http://www.newsru.com/world/23apr2007/nigeria.html

²⁰ New policy. 24.04.2007 http://www.novopol.ru/articlel9998/html

²¹ Around the world - http://www.mssianla.com/common/arc/story.php

²² Tomorrow. 23.04.2007 - http://www.zavta.com.ua/news/mir/43927

²³ http://www.rian.ru/world/america/20070423/64206258.html

²⁴ View. Business newspaper. 23.04.2007.

²⁵ New policy. 24.04.2007

²⁶ According to the Nigerian intelligence services, militants close to the organization were involved in the abduction in June 2007 of six Russian employees of the ALSKON plant in Ikot Abasi, owned by the Russian company RusAl - Вести.Ru (06.06.2007).

²⁷ "Head-chopping has become less frequent in Nigeria since the election", 03.07.2007 - http://news.politsovet.ru/n.news.afp.article.1912

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